Wednesday, 30 November 2016

NSE-INDEX OUTLOOK – 30 November, 2016

For educational purpose only, please trade after consulting with your advisor.

NIFTY 50: On last trading session we have seen a flat gain of 15.25points (+0.19%). As predicted NIFTY faced a resistance near 8200 level, NIFTY closed flat after reaching the intraday high of 8197.35. We believe that NIFTY will enter into sell zone if it closes below 8119. However the overall sentiment remains NEGATIVE as market is trading below long term average. Go long with caution target remains for 8200 and 8220.

Now what’s next: As predicted by us yesterday the resistance to Nifty remains at up move of 8200 the Nifty faced resistance with Intraday high of 8197. NIFTY is in buy zone we suggest you to go long with stop loss at 8090,rally may continue in Nifty with strong resistance to the up move at 8154/8161/8188/8205/8250/8296.Yesterday we saw a sharp correction in CRUDE OIL as IRAN rules out production cuts , OPEC struggles to reach agreement on output curb on already suffering oil rout. A lower oil price is positive for NIFTY. On last trading session FIIs were net sellers of Rs.715.30Crores and DIIs were net buyers of Rs. 534.20 in Capital markets. Nifty would see strong support at 8100/8064/7990/7950/7935/7897/7800/7777.

NIFTY BANK:On last trading session we have seen a minor loss of 77.70 points (-0.4%) as updated in our previous update the NIFTY BANK is in negative zone and every up move is the opportunity to sell . We are expecting a bounce back on NIFTY BANK however overall sentiment is weak.

Now what’s next: Our view is still same i.e. sell on rallies. We expecting bank nifty to trade below is long term moving average in the coming day.
If today NIFTY BANK Closes above 18559 then NIFTY BANK will enter into BUY ZONE.

The support for NIFTY BANK is at 18140/18050/17980/17720 and resistance to the up move is at 18540/18690/18780.

Tuesday, 29 November 2016

NSE-INDEX OUTLOOK – 29 November, 2016

For educational purpose only, please trade after consulting with your advisor.NIFTY 50: On last trading session we have seen a flat gain of 12.60 points (+0.16%) as mentioned in our yesterday’s outlook on Nifty where we mentioned that the NIFTY has entered into the buying zone. It closed above the crucial levels of 8090 however the Index is still trading below Long Term Moving Average due to which overall market sentiment remains negative. We suggest you to go cautious with Long positions.
Now what’s next: Nifty is in buy zone. we suggest you to go long with stop loss at 8090 for the target of 8200 and 8220. This rally may continue in Nifty with strong resistance lying at higher levels. Going through the week the investor look for a hectic week of data from Global cues,  it is unlikely that traders will go short on USD going into the week as decent jobs report expected on street, Italian Referendum and Presidential Elections in Austria will surely imply volatility in markets. On last trading session FIIs were net sellers of Rs.1436.40Crores and DIIs were net buyers of Rs. 1233.79 in Capital markets.
Support: 8100/8064/7990/7950/7935/7897/7800/7777.Resistance: 8154/8161/8188/8205/8250/8296If today Nifty closed below 8103, then Nifty will enter into sell Zone.
NIFTY BANK: On last trading session we have seen a moderate loss of 205.85 points (-1.1%) as updated in our previous update the NIFTY BANK is in negative zone.
Now what’s next: After yesterday fall, now we are expecting short term bounce back in Bank Nifty but overall sentiment is weak. Every up move in Bank Nifty is a opportunity to sell. The overall sentiment for Bank Nifty is week.
Support: 18140/18050/17980/17720Resistance: 18540/18690/18780If today Nifty Bank closed above 18643.50, then Nifty Bank will enter into Buy Zone.

Monday, 28 November 2016

NSE-INDEX OUTLOOK – 28 November, 2016

NSE-INDEX OUTLOOK – 28 November, 2016
For educational purpose only, please trade after consulting with your advisor.
NIFTY 50: On last trading session we have seen a gain of 148.80 points (+1.9%)  and closing at 8114.30. Now Nifty has entered into the buying zone as it closed above its short term moving average. However this trend is still subdued at Index is trading below its Long term Moving Average.
 Now what’s next: Nifty saw a sharp rally on Friday and entered into buying zone but we are expecting this rally may not continue. We have seen a continuous up move in US Dollar index which we expect is negative for this market.  A big Interest Rate cut by RBI can boost the rally.
Support: 8064/7990/7950/7935/7897/7800/7777.
Resistance: 8161/8188/8205/8250/8296.
Now, nifty will enter into sell zone if it close below 8097.50.
NIFTY BANK: On last trading session we have seen a moderate gain of 251.2 points (+1.4%) however overall Index looks weak on the charts and it is still is sell zone with negative sentiment. The key thing for consideration is that Nifty is trading above its short term moving average and below its long term moving average. However in the case of bank nifty, the case is opposite. Bank Nifty is trading above its long term moving average however below its short term moving average. So we are expecting that Nifty will come down to align with Bank Nifty.
Over the weekend a great move from RBI to curb excess liquidity from Market by  announcing the CRR hike by 100% . This is negative for banking shares specially PSU Bank as they have to deposit more money with RBI without getting any interest on that. We are expecting Base rate cut from Bank at very high pace, because since they are not getting any Return from RBI on his deposit, then why they will pay you 6%+ interest on FDR.
Support: 18140/18050/17980/17720 Resistance: 18540/18690/18780
On last trading session FIIs were net sellers of Rs. 372.88 Cr and DIIs were net buyers of Rs. 997.84 Cr in Capital markets.

We believe the rally in NIFTY will be supported by NIFTY IT and NIFTY Pharma.

Sunday, 27 November 2016

RBI Move to drain excess liquidity from system and its impact

RBI Move to drain excess liquidity from system

With a move to absorb the excess liquidity due to Demonitisation, RBI by its notification(annexed below)direct banks to increase its CRR( Cash Reserve ratio) by 100% of Net Demand and Time Liabilities(NDTL).
On the increase between September 16,2016 to November 11,2016, scheduled banks should maintain an incremental CRR of 100 percent, effective the fortnight beginning from November 26, 2016.

The RBI will review this move on December 9, 2016 or even earlier.

The Reserve Bank has also separately revived the Guarantee Scheme to enable deposit of SBN(Specified Banking Notes)balances at the Reserve Bank or at currency chests and get immediate value. This measure should also facilitate banks’ compliance with the incremental CRR.

How this move will Impact:

RBI came with a measure to suck out liquidity from banks. There has been huge deposits in banking system which is likely to gain further momentum. There is a limitation of total sterilisation by RBI which is around 7 lakh crore in reverse repo. This is a short term measure and will be reviewed by RBI on December 9,2016 or even earlier.

This temporary CRR hike is expected to take around 3.3 lakh crore of banking liquidity out. We think system is sitting on near 7 lakh crore excess liquidity, thus banking system will remain flush with excess liquidity even after this move. This move actually helps RBI to manage liquidity in absence of which overnight markets would have gotten completely dislocated .

It hurts banks as on such a large amount (3.3 lakh crore), banks don't get paid. It has some unique consequences on rates. Banks are likely to reduce fixed deposit rates even more sharply (because they earn zero on all incremental deposits, so why should they pay even 6% on 1 year FD, is how they will think) and thus it's likely that investors chase non-bank saving instruments even more. 

What happens to rates? It's likely that first order impact of this move is negative as some participants may read it a standard CRR hike. After this move we are expecting a Surge in Bond Yield and fall in Banking and reality stock mainly PSU Bank Stock.

Demonitisation has opened up space for steep rate cuts. We are expecting situation of disinflation and fall in GDP mainly in November and December 2016 due to liquidity crunch.


Below is the link for RBI Notification:
https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_CircularIndexDisplay.aspx?Id=10744

Tuesday, 8 November 2016

Save Tax Through ELSS Way! Franklin India Taxshield is winning combination





It’s around this time that most of us begin to think about tax planning. Among the options allowed under Section 80C deductions,Franklin India Taxshield is a good one. An ELSS fund, Franklin India Taxshield invests in equity, and has a three-year lock-in period from the date of investment. The majority of its portfolio is in stable large-cap stocks, making it a good fit for any kind of investor. It is a winning combination of low volatility, near-perfect consistency in beating its benchmark over the long term, and superior returns.

Evergreen performer
Franklin India Taxshield puts around three-quarters of its portfolio in large-cap stocks (stocks whose market capitalisation is above Rs 20,000 crore). Most ELSS funds have lower large-cap exposures. By virtue of this large-cap slant and its valuation-rooted, quality-conscious investment style, Franklin India Taxshield contains losses better than most in correcting markets. In the 2008 crash, for example, Franklin India Taxshield 56 per cent drop was below the average of 62 per cent for the ELSS category and even the 59 per cent average loss large-cap funds delivered.
Of course, this strategy limits gains when markets take off. The fund still does deliver above-average returns during market upswings. But peers such as Reliance Tax Saver, Axis Long Term Equity and Birla Sun Life Tax Relief 96, deliver higher bull-market returns–the three funds, for instance, clocked gains of 165 percent, 133 per cent and 117 per cent, respectively, in the 2013-2015 bull run against Franklin India Taxshield 106 per cent.
But these funds are more volatile; though they rise more, they fall more.  Reliance Tax Saver , for example, dropped 29 per cent in the correcting 2011 market, Birla Sun Life Tax Relief 96 lost 33 per cent while Franklin India Taxshield lost 17 per cent; this pattern repeats in other correcting market cycles too. At the same time, the fund is also able to deliver superior risk-adjusted returns, measured by the Sharpe ratio. In fact, Franklin India Taxshield has among the lowest volatility and the highest Sharpe among ELSS funds.

On consistency too, the fund does well. While the fund goes through short periods where it can underperform its category or benchmark, it usually recovers quickly. It has beaten the category average a high 97 per cent of the time when rolling 3-year returns over the past ten years. Against its benchmark, the Nifty 500 index, Franklin India Taxshield is similarly good. Since its inception, the fund has done better than the index 97 per cent of the time, when rolling 3-year returns. Barring Axis Long Term Equity Franklin India Taxshield has among the best records of consistency in beating both category and benchmark.
In the one, three, and five-year periods, Franklin India Taxshield returns are in the mid-quartile. This is partly due to the comparatively lower mid-cap and small-cap holding at a time when these two segments have been indefatigably marching higher. Another reason is its sector shift and stock choices.
Portfolio change
Franklin India Taxshield takes a long-term perspective on its stocks, tending towards a buy-and-hold approach. It considers stock valuations in light of long-term growth prospects, and tends towards companies with high corporate governance and quality.
Given the promise in economic growth and recovery, the fund has significantly increased holding in banking. The sector now accounts for 32 per cent of the portfolio, up from the 26 per cent six months ago. It still holds mostly private sector banks here; Axis Bank is one stock where the fund has increased holding and which has recently seen sharp corrections. Automobiles is the second sector where the fund has increased stake; here too, the fund has upped share in Mahindra & Mahindra, which can benefit from both a rural and urban recovery, and Maruti Suzuki.
The fund hasn’t moved much into other recovery-driven but troubled sectors such as metals, construction, infrastructure, engineering, or energy; these sectors form very small shares in the overall portfolio, even as peer funds hold these. This is also a contributing factor to Franklin India Taxshield short-term underperformance compared to peers as these sectors have run up sharply in the past six months. Significant exposure is limited to cement, where demand as well as company fundamentals are far more robust. As with most funds, Franklin India Taxshield has cut holdings in the software sector, though the sector is still near the top. Telecom holdings are also down.
Still, the fund’s portfolio holds a balance between cyclical, defensive, and consumer themes that can hold it in good stead. The fund is managed by R Janakiraman and Lakshmikanth Reddy, and has an AUM of Rs. 2392 crore.


Sunday, 6 November 2016

Nifty Weekly Outlook(07-11 November, 2016)



For Educational Purpose




Nifty Close the Week with a lose of almost 2.40%

Now What's Next:

Now Nifty is at very critical level. It is make or break position for Nifty. 

Immediate Support for Nifty lying at 8398. Once that level Breach then next support lying at 8337. But if this level also break then deep fall expected in Nifty which might extend to 8000 to 8100. .

Immediate Resistance for the Nifty Lying at 8500 to 8550. If the index manages to close above these levels then the index can move to the levels of 8650 to 8700.

Next week is expected to be highly volatile due to Global Event .

BANK NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK (07-11 NOV,2016)


For Educational Purpose Only.




Nifty Bank ended the last week on week note.

Now What's Next:
Support for the index lies Between of 19000 to 19100 where Short term Moving Average are lying. If the index manages to close below these levels then the index might see levels of 18500 where the index has formed a base in July – 2016 and August – 2016. If the index breaks below these levels, then the index will see further fall which might be till 18050 to 18200 .
Resistance for the index lies between 19400 to 19500 where the index has formed a gap on 02/11/2016. Resistance for the index lies in the zone of 19700 to 19800 from where the index has broken down. If index moves above these levels, then we might see levels of 20,000 in Bank Nifty.Range for the week is seen from 18200 to 18300 on downside to 19400 to 19500 on upside.Once index moves above these levels, then we may see fresh rally in Bank Nifty which might help Bank Nifty to see level 20200.

Friday, 4 November 2016

Sun Pharma Share Outlook


View on Sun pharma

For Educational Purpose Only



The stock closed the last week by losing around 13%.

Now What's Next:

The stock have strong support between 635 to 651. We are expecting the stock will hold these levels and see some bounce back. If these Level Breach then Next Target will be around 593. 

Short term Resistance lying at 710. Once that Breach then we may see a level of 730.